Splits taking place within the SA Labour and Political scene

"This summary of splits taking place within the SA labour and political scene is a useful overview.

The more the DA pushes for a 2 party state and with voters appearing to have bought into this line of thinking at the last National election - the more the need for a strong Multi -Party Democracy is obvious - we are a diverse society and without representation in Parliament for all segments of society - there is great potential for unrest and violent demonstrations!

The ACDP has a 20 year track record in Parliament, Provincial Legislatures and Local Councils and is committed to a 'shared future' for all who live in South Africa. We view the divisions caused by 'power mongering' as enormously destructive, undermining Nation Building and NOT in the interests of the people of South Africa!"


Overview:  A proliferation of, often opportunistic, new political parties in the run-up to  national election is to be expected under the South African constitutional dispensation.

Much of  the present trend however, seems to contain elements of more fundamental social developmental and economic policy than just superficial, opportunistic issues. Among the main drivers are basic economic policy, the issues of corruption, poverty, inequality, unemployment, service delivery, and quality of political leadership.

At present the biggest potential threatening fracture has as its centre the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and its governing alliance with the African National Congress  and the South African Communist Party (SACP).

Speculation is mounting that the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) could split from Cosatu, backed by Vavi- supporting unions.

Historically, in many African countries liberation was eventually followed by a parting of ways between political and labour movements.

The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), Cosatu’s largest union, emerged weakened from last year’s mine unrest. It lost some 90,000 members, mostly to AMCU.

The transformation of South Africa’s broader political-electoral sphere perhaps goes back to, among others, the formation of the Democratic Alliance (DA), with much of the New National Party leadership component subsequently joining the ANC and the breakaway from the ANC and formation of the United Democratic Movement (UDM).

Since then have come various splits in the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the formation of new parties, the most recent being the National Freedom Party (NFP), the formation from the ranks of the ANC of the Congress of the People (Cope), the launch of Dr Mamphela Ramphele’s  Agang, the formation of the Socialist and Workers Party (WASP) in the wake of the labour unrest in North West, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) by the expelled ANC youth leader Julius Malema.

On the front of organised Business there has also been a number of early shakeouts and realignments, mostly still divided along racial-political lines.

Going forward it is however, not only the ANC that will be affected by the realignment taking place.

Agang is, for instance, likely to have an impact on the support of the DA in next year’s general elections.

And, while many write off Malema’s EFF as a “joke” that will be short-lived, he and his fellow EFF activists do enjoy a certain rapport with and support from the most impoverished communities, especially in the North West mining areas.

In community-based political struggles related to poverty and service-delivery in informal shack settlements independent organisations like Abahlali baseMjondolo have sprung up, while Malema’s EFF, WASP and others are also seeking to gain a foothold.

While it maybe argued that such developments are good for democracy, broadening diversity and the scope for debate and participation, it also serves to heighten political intolerance and violence. The natural successor to these is often political repression.

The ruling party is perhaps at its most vulnerable ever and for the first time since 1994 faces a very serious prospect of a split.

While nowhere near being toppled yet, or even being dramatically weakened, the ANC’s influence and grip on power is being seriously challenged and is slipping.

Whether the current shifts and realignments of players in the socio-political arena will be in South Africa’s best interest in the long run, or whether good or bad will come from it, remains to be seen.

For now South Africa lives in challenging if not dangerous times.

(Summary of a more comprehensive report - shortened ).

27 August Edition of The Intelligence Bulletin.